More than 30 million Americans have already cast ballots in the midterm elections, and the early numbers lean toward Democrats, according to an early-voting tracker run by University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald. Early voting is running ahead of 2022 levels, TNND reported, with eight days left until Election Day on Nov. 3.
Analysts caution that early ballots do not decide anything yet, and some of them say the signs so far do not add up to a wave.
What the early numbers show
McDonald’s tracker counted more than 30 million ballots as of Monday afternoon, using party registration data from over two dozen states. Fox News put the total at 27.4 million as of 6 a.m. Monday, and CNN reported more than 31 million on Tuesday. The figures differ because trackers use different sources and update at different times, and not every state reports party data.
McDonald said participation by Democratic voters is stronger than Republican participation, which matches the enthusiasm gap that has shown up in poll after poll. He also said Hispanic voters are turning out at unprecedented levels and that Black voter turnout is higher in the few states that publish race data. CNN reported that returns suggest the youngest Republican voters in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina are voting well behind their 2024 pace.
Why analysts urge caution
CNN’s analysis says it is far too early to call a Democratic wave. Roughly 10 Senate races will decide the chamber, and most are neck and neck, so the Senate remains a toss-up. Early vote totals offer only a limited read on the final outcome.
CNN also pointed to the administration’s legal moves in Alaska and California, which it said could foreshadow challenges to results.
The final-week push
President Donald Trump rallied for Republican Senate candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi on Monday, saying he cannot take a chance, and he was scheduled to appear in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday. Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, who are locked in a tight Senate race, both planned rallies in Lubbock the same day, and we covered an earlier early-voting push in our report on the No Kings early-voting events.
What to do if you haven’t voted
Check your state or county election website for early voting hours and the deadline to return a mail ballot. Polls on Election Day open at hours set by each state.
