Michigan’s open Senate seat drew both parties’ biggest names in the same weekend: former President Barack Obama rallied for Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Detroit on Saturday, and President Donald Trump spoke for Republican Mike Rogers in Port Huron on Sunday, according to Newsweek and Bridge Michigan. Early polls give El-Sayed a narrow edge with the Nov. 3 election one week away.
The attention makes sense. Michigan is the only Democratic-held Senate seat that the Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up, and Republicans have not won a Senate race in the state since 1994.
Two rallies in two days
Obama appeared in Detroit with El-Sayed and gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson. A day later Trump spoke at McMorran Place Arena in Port Huron, the first presidential visit in the history of the city and of St. Clair County, according to the city. It was his seventh campaign stop in seven days. Trump has ramped up his attacks on El-Sayed since the Democratic primary.
Port Huron sits on the Canadian border, and the local economy depends on trade through the crossing. Trump’s tariffs have set off a trade war with Canada, Michigan’s biggest international trading partner, which gives El-Sayed an argument he has pressed: he has tied Rogers to Trump on prices, housing and trade.
What the polls say
The seat is open because Sen. Gary Peters is not running again. Eighteen of 19 polls taken over the past month showed El-Sayed ahead, by margins from 1 to 7 points, according to a USA Today analysis. A Mitchell Research poll on Oct. 1 had him ahead of Rogers 45.6% to 41.4%, though the pollster warned the race could tighten, because Republicans have gained late in past Michigan Senate contests. A Tyson Group survey for a conservative group, taken Oct. 5-8, had Rogers up 46% to 44%. RealClearPolling’s average from Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 showed El-Sayed ahead by 2.7 points, mostly within the margin of error.
Rogers had more money available at the end of the last reporting period, about $6.5 million to El-Sayed’s $3.8 million.
Why it matters beyond Michigan
The state’s governor’s race is also on the ballot, with Benson leading in most polls, which we covered in our look at the close governor races. Both campaigns say turnout will decide the Senate race, and a win would help either party’s path to a Senate majority. Early voting is already under way across Michigan.
